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Quelle Research
April 02, 2020
OCBC Asian Credit Daily
Erste Group Credit markets remain in thrall to the coronavirus
Erste Group Croatia | Instant Comment
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Virus and Russian Economy: Making Efforts to Decouple
As Russia remains on a week-off regime and people are supposed not to leave their homes, the number of Russians contracted with the virus kept rising at a high rate in recent days, albeit from a relatively low level (given the size of the country). Around 200,000 Russians who either returned from abroad before the borders were shut or had contacts with returnees are under medical surveillance and are supposed to stay isolated (but are not fully locked down). The Russian authorities acted relatively fast and at a relatively early stage, which gives hope that Russia still has chances to avoid greater problems. If so, then economic activities in the country may be suspended or reduced for a shorter period compared to other countries – possibly weeks rather than several months. A very preliminary estimate suggests that the impact of a week-off on economic activity was strong, but any of such estimates cannot and should not be extrapolated for future periods. The key question is about not how deep the fall was in recent days or even weeks, but how long severe restrictions on movement and business activity will last.  --- Any quantitative estimates of the macroeconomic data and forecasts in the current environment should be treated with great caution, in Russia in particular. Even Russia’s inflation numbers may be questioned as it is not very clear how “raw” data are going to be collected during the quarantine.  --- The most reliable information can currently be obtained from financial and commodity markets, as well as from daily banking and monetary statistics. --- In recent days the Russian markets calmed down and almost ignored another drop in the oil price. Brent traded at around $23/bbl on March 30 and 31 and fell by over $3/bbl (-11%) since Thursday last week, while the ruble weakened only by 1% and the long-term OFZ yield even dropped by 30 bps. Such decoupling from oil can be explained by various factors, such as purely technical and those more linked to expectations, namely the additional supply of FX from the National Wealth Fund. --- In contrast to many other EMs, Russia has enough resources to cover all debt obligations on time and in full. There are plenty debt problems other countries should face within the next 6-12 months. Hence, attention may concentrate on more problematic cases. The exposure to OFZ looks safe, but not profitable in USD terms for many investors. --- Foreigners’ holding of OFZ may drop to 27-28% in coming months. The latter translates into net offer of OFZs on the secondary market up to R350-450 bln. If the global situation deteriorates, it may happen quickly, within a month or two. In this case, pressure on the ruble may increase, and OFZ yields may jump to 8-8.5%. GKEM Analytica reports have become paid starting Jan 1, 2020. To receive full-text report, please contact us at research@gkem-analytica.com
DNB ASA Daily Macro Brief
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook
April 01, 2020
Erste Group Global Strategy Q2 2020
Erste Group Economy to contract this year
ICU Weekly Insight -- Weak economic growth in February
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (March 25 - 31, 2020)
OCBC Asian Credit Daily
Erste Group V-shaped recovery?
DNB ASA Daily Macro Brief
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook
March 31, 2020
OCBC Asian Credit Daily
Erste Group Serbia | Instant Comment
Risk Management Institute Weekly Credit Brief (Mar 24 - Mar 30)
The Weekly Credit Brief (WCB) provides summaries of significant credit-related events that occurred around the globe in the latest week. This week's WCB includes the following story: Globally listed corporates' credit risk reaches the highest since 2009
Erste Group Updates of all covered companies
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Global Fixed Income Weekly
DNB ASA Daily Macro Brief
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook
March 30, 2020
Erste Group Croatia | Instant Comment
Ashmore Investment Management Weekly investor research
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Mar. 30, 2020)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Mar. 30, 2020)
OCBC Asian Credit Daily
Erste Group Poland Weekly Focus | How much did market sentiment worsen?
Blackfort Capital Capitulation at equity markets? European equity markets keep being much cheaper than US markets
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (20 March 2020)
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