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Quelle Research
October 16, 2018
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Budget: Lacking growth, topping up reserves
Beschreibung
Despite a rather unconvincing economic growth (analyzed in the previous note “Macro: Sluggish Growth Amid Robust Lending”), the Russian macro balances look solid. Russia again turned to a twin surplus (budget and the current account) regime. The country’s total foreign debt now almost equals its international reserves. Statistics show that Russia has rather strong external and internal balance sheets and no major macroeconomic imbalances. What it is missing is a convincing rate of economic growth. An idea of borrowing locally in order to accumulate reserves in foreign currencies looks extravagant as local interest rates are higher than the returns the government can get from investing reserves abroad. But it makes perfect sense if a significant depreciation of the ruble is expected. If so, the government appears to be sending other economic agents a preposterous signal (mistrust in local currency) and discourages investment. In this situation, it is not surprising that the government expects growth between 1% and 2% in the next couple years. Establishing an infrastructure fund looks much more reasonable as it does not involve FX market activities, but only if this fund operates in an efficient manner. Anyway, transfers to any kind of the \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\"reserve fund\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\" are unlikely to significantly exceed annual budget surpluses.
UkrSibbank Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (October 10-16, 2018)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Oct. 16, 2018)
Erste Group Short Note Hungary
Risk Management Institute Weekly Credit Brief (Oct 09 - Oct 15)
Beschreibung
The weekly Credit Brief (WCB) provides summaries of significant credit-related events that occured around the globe in the lastest week. This week's WCB includes the following story: China’s ‘new energy’ vehicles take off amid economic slowdown
DNB ASA Daily Macro Brief
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Undersecretariat of Treasury Update on Turkish Economy
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Oct. 16, 2018)
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
Tengri Capital Tengri Capital Daily
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Global Fixed Income Weekly
OCBC Asian Credit Daily
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook
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