August 13, 2019 | Cbonds
|Last week, banking-sector liquidity returned to above UAH100bn (US$4bn) due to inflows from the budget and the NBU. Most likely, this increase will be short-term, and this week we expect a decline due to quarterly income-tax payments.|
Last week, the NBU actively purchased FX from the market, providing UAH4bn (US$0.16bn) of local-currency liquidity, and UAH3bn (US$0.12bn) was received from non-monetary operations. The Treasury provided UAH7.5bn (US$0.3nbn) of funds via budget expenditures, but UAH4.6bn (US$0.18bn) of reserves were exchanged in cash.
ICU view: Quarterly income-tax payments will be paid during the second ten days of August, which usually have a negative impact on liquidity in the banking system. We expect that these payments will exceed budget expenditures, especially due to the low amount of debt repayments this week. These cash-flows will have a negative impact on liquidity, moving it down below UAH100bn (US$4bn). Support can come from the NBU via the FX market where FX can be sold by foreign investors for purchases of new bills and by exporters to pay income tax.
|Land des Risikos||Ukraine|